Archived research v1. Preserved for reference; its assumptions have not been revalidated for the new research.
Archived dossier data
Checks
Edition dated 7 September 2026
15 / 15 checks
Week 1: Catchment & site
Brief 3 local brokers on light-industrial premises ↗
Whether 1,000–1,700 m² properties exist in the right rent category
Pass criterion: One-page brief sent; at least 3 properties identified
1 day(s) · €0
List competitors in the travel-time catchment and record their prices ↗
The model holds the competitive landscape constant; a new entrant in the same catchment changes the capture rate
Pass criterion: Complete survey of premium and wellness clubs in the travel-time catchment, including price lists
1 day(s) · €0
Map the actual 15-minute travel-time catchment for 3 to 5 candidate sites ↗
The assumed catchment is a circle; the actual catchment is a network with barriers. The difference can reach 30%.
Pass criterion: Travel-time catchment mapped by transport mode (car, public transport, walking) for each site
1 day(s) · €0
Obtain indicative rents for the properties identified ↗
Rent is the variable with the greatest effect on break-even
Pass criterion: At least one property below the €571/m²/year ceiling (Paris) or within the 90–150 range (Southern Marseille)
1 day(s) · €0
Recount managers and professionals in the actual travel-time catchment ↗
Catchment size. The model’s most critical parameter
Pass criterion: At least one site with more than 25,000 resident managers and professionals, counted at IRIS or arrondissement level
1 day(s) · €0
Week 2: Demand
3 to 5 operator interviews (premium clubs outside Paris) ↗
Actual churn and the members/catchment ratio. The model’s two most costly industry assumptions
Pass criterion: At least 3 operators provide an approximate churn rate
2 day(s) · €0
12 to 15 qualitative interviews with managers and professionals in the catchment ↗
Their current training routine, what they already pay, and what makes them leave a gym
Pass criterion: 12 interviews completed using the prepared guide, without pitching
4 day(s) · €300
Measure cost per qualified lead ↗
If cost per lead already approaches €334 before conversion, the marketing model does not hold
Pass criterion: Cost per lead compatible with a final CAC ≤ €334
1 day(s) · €0
Publish a landing page and launch a test campaign ↗
The only demand measure that does not rely on stated intentions
Pass criterion: Page live, campaign launched, at least 100 qualified clicks
2 day(s) · €1,500
Test willingness to pay in the €140–190 range ↗
The local affordability ratio, measured rather than inferred
Pass criterion: Stated willingness to pay is consistent with the territory’s calculated sustainable price
1 day(s) · €0
Week 3: Actual costs
Cost the equipment package under a finance lease ↗
The finance lease and rent compete for the same margin: lighter equipment frees up rent capacity
Pass criterion: Supplier quote + quotes from two finance-lease providers, based on 14 machines
1 day(s) · €0
Obtain a construction cost range ↗
The cost item with the most frequent overruns, for which the model has no contingency allowance
Pass criterion: Quote received with an explicit allowance for structural contingencies
3 day(s) · €1,500
Offer a founding-member rate to week 2 leads ↗
Prelaunch is worth €677k in cash in the model. This is the only test involving real financial commitments.
Pass criterion: At least a few signed or committed presales
2 day(s) · €0
Update the model with all actual figures ↗
The recalculated break-even point. The output that determines the decision
Pass criterion: Break-even ≤ 75%. Above 80%, the model leaves no room for execution errors.
1 day(s) · €0
Visit the shortlisted site or sites with a construction project manager ↗
Feasibility of the space programme: gym floor, studios, recovery, changing rooms, social space
Pass criterion: The minimum 1,000–1,200 m² space programme fits inside the building
1 day(s) · €800