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Definitions

The terms used in this business plan. Search, or open a term to read its meaning.

62 definitions · A–Z

Ancillary gross marginMembers & revenue

The share of ancillary sales left after the goods and direct delivery costs behind those sales. It has not yet paid the club’s rent, payroll or other operating costs.

Example: A 55% ancillary gross margin leaves €55 from €100 of ancillary sales and assigns €45 to direct costs.

Ancillary salesMembers & revenue

Additional revenue, such as drinks or services, assumed to be a percentage of collected membership revenue excluding VAT. The percentage is a spending assumption, not a count of members buying something.

Annual member churnMembers & revenue

The assumed share of a starting group of members who leave over a year, converted into a monthly departure rate. Retention is the share who stay; the scenario acquires replacements to maintain its planned membership path.

In this modelMonthly churn = 1 − (1 − annual churn)^(1/12).

Annual rent per m²Operating costs

The annual base rent for each square metre, converted into a monthly building cost. Charges and property tax are added separately, while the rent deposit ties up cash at opening.

In this modelMonthly base rent = floor area × annual rent per m² ÷ 12.

AssumptionModel & research

A value or belief used to explore how the club could work before it has been established. Dossier means it comes from the existing research; Planning means an added allowance, and neither label makes it a verified fact.

Average membersMembers & revenue

The average of membership at the start and end of a month, used for that month’s revenue and member-related costs. Calculations retain fractions of a member even though the table rounds them for display.

In this modelAverage members = (starting members + closing members) ÷ 2.

Base & Aggressive scenariosModel & research

Base starts at 40% of capacity and takes 18 months to target. Aggressive starts at 60% and takes 9 months. Price, target membership, churn, CAC, staffing and AI allowances start identical. They are alternative assumptions, not demand forecasts. Edits are shared between Vision and Business Model through the scenario link and saved in this browser when available.

Building charges & property taxOperating costs

An added monthly building expense calculated as a percentage of base rent. Energy and the other operating-cost allowance are separate lines, so they are not included here.

Capital expenditureOpening costs

Cash spent to acquire or improve assets used over time, such as equipment and fit-out. The model’s opening investment is broader: it also includes pre-opening expenses, the rent deposit and member acquisition, so the full opening total is not all capital expenditure.

Cash balanceProjection

The cash remaining after entered equity and the loan fund opening costs and all cash flows so far. A negative balance shows funding is missing in the scenario; a positive balance below the minimum reserve still falls short of the chosen buffer.

In this modelCash balance = opening equity + loan − opening investment + cumulative post-opening net cash flow.

Cash break-even while repayingProfitability

The steady membership needed to cover operating costs, replacement investment and the monthly loan payment while repayments apply. It is higher than operating break-even when those extra cash outflows are present, and the loan portion stops at maturity.

In this model(Monthly fixed costs + replacement investment + loan payment) ÷ contribution per member, rounded up.

Cash shortfall after openingFunding & cash

The largest accumulated cash deficit from operating months 1–36, beyond the opening investment, after replacement investment and loan payments. Cumulative cash flow is the running total of inflows and outflows, so earlier cash generation can cover later losses instead of simply adding every loss-making month.

In this modelCash shortfall after opening = max(0, −lowest cumulative post-opening cash flow).

CatchmentModel & research

The surrounding area from which people could realistically travel to the club. The calculator does not estimate how many people in that area will join, even when a larger building increases the assumed membership.

Club floor areaMembers & revenue

The building size used to calculate capacity, rent, part of payroll, energy and fit-out. Equipment, pre-opening costs and the base payroll allowance stay fixed when you change this input.

Collected membership revenue per memberMembers & revenue

The monthly membership revenue retained per average member after removing VAT and applying price realization and collection. Ancillary sales are added separately.

In this modelSubscription price ÷ (1 + VAT rate) × realization rate × collection rate.

Example: At the starting settings: €179 ÷ 1.20 × 95% × 97.6% = €138.31 per member-month.

Collection rateMembers & revenue

The share of membership charges assumed to be collected after price reductions. The uncollected share reduces revenue once; it is not charged again as an operating expense.

Contribution per memberProfitability

The monthly amount one member contributes toward fixed costs after membership and ancillary revenue, ancillary direct costs, consumables, payment fees, AI usage and replacement CAC. This is a steady-membership measure; acquisition for additional growth costs extra.

Cost to acquire a memberMembers & revenue

CAC is the assumed cost of gaining one paying member, applied to opening members, growth and replacements for members who leave. It is not cost per lead, and this model uses CAC instead of adding the old percentage-of-revenue marketing budget.

In this modelMonthly acquisition spending = CAC × (net membership growth + departures among starting members).

DepreciationModel & research

An accounting expense that spreads the cost of an asset over its useful life rather than charging the purchase as one operating expense. This simplified model omits depreciation from operating profit and records the actual opening purchase as a cash outflow.

Energy per m²Operating costs

An annual energy allowance per square metre, multiplied by area and divided by 12. It stays constant across projected months rather than tracking attendance, weather or actual equipment usage.

Equipment purchaseOpening costs

The equipment budget paid before opening. This input stays fixed when area changes, and no equipment lease payment is charged in the model.

Equipment replacement reserveFunding & cash

Despite the input’s name, this model treats the amount as cash spent every month on replacement investment, below operating profit. It differs from the minimum cash reserve, which remains available in the bank; routine repairs are already in other operating costs.

Equity available at openingFunding & cash

Money contributed by owners or investors and available in month 0. It reduces the remaining funding gap, and the model assigns it no loan repayments, dividends or investor return.

Estimated capacityMembers & revenue

The model’s estimate of how many memberships the building can support, rounded down to a whole member. Actual capacity still depends on the layout, timetable and busiest periods.

In this modelCapacity = floor area ÷ space per member, rounded down.

Evidence & validationModel & research

Evidence is something observed or documented, such as paid memberships, retention data or a supplier quote. Validation means checking whether that evidence supports an assumption for this particular club; a plausible calculator result alone does not do that.

Fit-out budget per m²Opening costs

The assumed cost per square metre to prepare the building, including studio, recovery and social-space works. The total scales with area and is paid in month 0; equipment is a separate purchase.

Fixed operating costsOperating costs

Rent, building charges, payroll, energy, other operating costs and the shared AI platform, charged every month regardless of membership. These costs form the base for the single-club minimum cash reserve. In the group view the shared AI platform moves to central costs and is counted once.

Gross funding needFunding & cash

The largest cumulative cash deficit across months 0–36, called the cash trough, plus the minimum cash reserve. It includes opening costs and any cash lost during operation, including loan repayments, before deducting entered equity or loan proceeds; it does not fund losses after month 36.

In this modelGross funding need = opening investment + cash shortfall after opening + minimum cash reserve.

Group EBITDAProfitability

The total operating result of the owned clubs, less site launch expenses, central overhead and shared AI costs. Each club repeats the selected assumptions from its opening month. Pre-opening costs and founding-member acquisition are expensed in the opening year; shared AI setup is expensed once in year one. Buildings and equipment are cash investments, not EBITDA costs. No franchise, hotel, AI or internal licence fees create revenue.

In this modelGroup EBITDA = site trading EBITDA − site launch expenses − central overhead − shared AI platform and setup.

Group funding needFunding & cash

The cash required across seven years of owned-club openings, allowing for the reserve required at each stage and cash generated by earlier clubs. It includes AI setup, opening investments and central costs. This group projection is unfinanced: it does not copy the single club’s equity, loans or repayments to other locations. EBITDA profitability does not mean those opening investments have been recovered.

Included AI training coachOperating costs

The coach is included in club membership, with zero separate AI subscription or licence revenue in the forecast. Setup is paid once before the first club opens; monthly platform and product support is counted once, and usage scales with active members. These are editable planning allowances. The model does not automatically lower churn, CAC or human coaching payroll because AI is present.

In this modelMonthly usage cost = average members × AI adoption percentage × cost per active member.

Loan drawn at openingFunding & cash

Borrowed cash received in month 0 that reduces the remaining funding gap but creates monthly repayments. Principal is the borrowed amount still owed; receiving or repaying it is a financing cash movement, not revenue or an operating cost.

Loan interest & termFunding & cash

Loan annual interest is the assumed yearly borrowing rate, divided by 12 to charge monthly interest on the remaining principal. Loan term is the number of monthly repayments; together these inputs determine the payment amount and when repayments end.

Member consumablesOperating costs

Water, laundry and supplies expressed as an annual amount per member. The model divides that amount by 12 and multiplies by the month’s average membership.

Members at openingMembers & revenue

The assumed starting memberships, entered as a percentage of capacity and capped at the target percentage. Their acquisition cost is paid before opening, but no advance subscription payments or presale cash are assumed collected.

Membership VATMembers & revenue

The tax percentage used here to convert the displayed subscription price into revenue excluding VAT. The model also treats costs as net of recoverable VAT and leaves out the timing of VAT payments and recoveries.

In this modelPrice excluding VAT = price including VAT ÷ (1 + VAT rate).

Minimum cash reserveFunding & cash

A cushion kept in the bank for unexpected costs or slower sales, set as a number of months of fixed operating costs. It stays available even at the lowest projected cash balance: it is added to funding needs but is not assumed spent.

In this modelMinimum cash reserve = monthly fixed operating costs × reserve months.

Example: At a reserve setting of 3, keep three months of the scenario’s fixed operating costs available. Group reserves grow with the number of open clubs and central costs.

Monthly loan paymentFunding & cash

The level monthly payment covering interest and repayment of principal, starting in month 1 and ending at the loan term. Payments reduce projected cash flow but are excluded from operating profit; no fees or repayment holiday are modelled.

Months to targetMembers & revenue

The time allowed for membership to rise in equal monthly steps from opening to the target, then remain level. This is an assumed path, with no opening delay or test of whether enough people can be acquired each month.

Net cash flowProjection

The cash generated or used in one operating month after operating costs, replacement investment and loan payments, before income tax. A positive month adds cash but does not mean earlier losses or the opening investment have been recovered.

In this modelMonthly net cash flow = operating profit − replacement investment − loan payment.

Opening investmentOpening costs

All cash assigned to month 0: fit-out, equipment, contingency, pre-opening costs, the rent deposit and acquisition of opening members. This total includes expenses and tied-up cash as well as purchased assets.

Operating break-evenProfitability

The steady membership needed to cover operating costs, including replacement CAC, rounded up to a whole member. It excludes loan payments, replacement investment and tax, and cannot be reached within this building if it exceeds estimated capacity.

In this modelOperating break-even members = monthly fixed costs ÷ contribution per member, rounded up.

Operating costsOperating costs

The monthly total of fixed costs, variable costs and acquisition spending; variable costs here are ancillary direct costs, member consumables, payment fees and AI usage. The projection includes both growth and replacement acquisition, while the target cost summary includes replacement acquisition only.

Operating marginProfitability

The share of total revenue left as operating profit at target membership. A negative percentage means operating costs exceed revenue; it is not a return on the money invested.

In this modelOperating margin = operating profit ÷ revenue × 100.

Operating profitProfitability

Revenue minus operating costs, before depreciation, financing, replacement investment and income tax in this model. The headline shows a steady month at target membership; Year 1 operating result sums the first 12 trading months, including growth acquisition. It excludes the month-zero pre-opening, founding-member acquisition and AI setup expenses; the group EBITDA view includes those expenses in each opening year.

In this modelOperating profit = revenue − fixed costs − variable costs − acquisition spending.

Other operating costsOperating costs

A fixed monthly allowance for cleaning, insurance, software, accounting, routine repairs and administration. It excludes every separately listed cost and does not automatically increase when the building gets larger.

Payback periodProfitability

The time needed for cumulative cash generated to recover an initial investment, using a consistent basis for project cash or investor cash. This calculator does not compute payback: its profitable-month milestones show when current operations cover current costs, not when the opening investment has been recovered.

Payment feesOperating costs

The assumed cost of processing payments, calculated here as a percentage of all revenue excluding VAT. This simplified billing basis may differ from a provider’s actual pricing.

Payroll & coachesOperating costs

The staff budget combines a fixed annual base with an additional annual allowance per square metre, then divides the total by 12. It includes employer costs, management, reception and coaches; no separate instructor bill is added.

In this modelMonthly payroll = (base annual payroll + payroll per m² × floor area) ÷ 12.

Pre-opening costsOpening costs

An upfront allowance for design, permits, legal work, pre-opening rent and the team before launch. It stays fixed when area changes and excludes equipment, fit-out, the deposit and member acquisition.

Price realizationMembers & revenue

The percentage of the advertised price retained after discounts, free periods and similar reductions. It is applied before the collection rate, so a price reduction and a missed payment have separate effects.

Profitability milestonesProjection

Sustained operating profit is the first month with a non-negative operating result that stays non-negative through month 36. Cash flow turns positive applies the same test after replacement investment and loan payments; neither milestone means the opening investment has been paid back.

Refundable rent depositOpening costs

Cash tied up with the landlord at opening, expressed as a number of months of base rent. It increases funding needs without being an operating expense, and the model assumes no refund within 36 months.

Remaining funding gapFunding & cash

The gross funding need still uncovered after deducting equity and the loan entered for opening. If entered funding exceeds the need, Funding above minimum shows the surplus; entering an amount does not establish that it is secured.

In this modelRemaining gap = max(0, gross funding need − opening equity − loan drawn).

RevenueMembers & revenue

Membership revenue plus ancillary sales, excluding VAT and before expenses. Revenue at target uses steady target membership; each projected month uses average membership during that month.

RunwayFunding & cash

The length of time available cash can support a business before it needs more funding, given its cash inflows and outflows. This calculator uses a fixed 36-month projection horizon; it does not calculate a separate runway duration.

Simplified modelModel & research

Simple calculator and Full model project one full club over 36 months. Group model repeats that club’s calculation for up to five opening dates over seven years, then deducts central and shared AI costs. Vision reads the same scenario. Smaller buildings are not automatically a separate compact-club design. The model leaves out seasonality, inflation and terminal value.

Space per memberMembers & revenue

The assumed floor area needed per registered member, used to estimate total membership capacity. It does not mean every member attends at once or that class seats, showers and recovery facilities have been checked.

Subscription priceMembers & revenue

The advertised monthly membership price, including the VAT entered in the model. Discounts and collection losses reduce the revenue kept, and raising this price does not automatically reduce assumed demand.

Target membershipMembers & revenue

The share of estimated capacity the scenario aims to reach and then maintain. This percentage measures memberships sold, not the number of people present at the same time.

In this modelTarget members = capacity × target membership percentage.

Working capitalModel & research

Money needed for day-to-day operations because inventory, customer payments and supplier payments happen at different times; those timing differences can absorb or release cash. The model does not calculate those detailed balances, so its minimum cash reserve is a separate buffer rather than a working-capital forecast.

Works & equipment contingencyOpening costs

An allowance for fit-out and equipment costs exceeding their base budgets, calculated as a percentage of both. The calculator includes the entire allowance as a month-0 cash outflow, separately from the minimum cash reserve kept in the bank.

In this modelContingency = (fit-out + equipment purchase) × contingency percentage.

Definitions describe this simplified model. Close this panel to return to your numbers.
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Archived research v1. Preserved for reference; its assumptions have not been revalidated for the new research.

Training · Recovery · Social space

Social Club: decision dossier

Initial research: 1–3 September 2026 · Edition dated 7 September 2026

08chapters52territories28assumptions15checks

Introduction: why now

We are building social clubs in premium cities outside Paris, bringing training, recovery and social life together in places people return to every week. Three trends support the idea: social clubs are growing, sport is becoming part of everyday wellbeing, and people need more opportunities to meet.

1. Social clubs are creating a new category

In the United States, Remedy Place has four clubs, spanning West Hollywood, New York and Boston. Othership operates four locations across Toronto and New York, built around saunas, cold plunges and group sessions. These networks show how a recovery space can also become a place to meet people. Remedy Place, Othership.

In Paris, Rune combines group training, an open gym, a sauna, a cold plunge, a restaurant, coworking and events. The connection between training, recovery and social life is taking shape in the offer itself. Rune.

For our clubs: build a regular meeting point around movement, with an experience that makes people want to stay after their session and see familiar faces.

2. Sport is becoming a wellbeing habit

In France, 52% of people who exercise named health among their two main motivations in 2025, up from 46% in 2018. Relaxation was cited by 34%. Regular participation is also rising: 61% of people aged 15 and over in 2025, compared with 54% in 2018, using a threshold of 52 sessions per year. INJEP / CRÉDOC, 2025 survey.

Fitness membership remains less widespread in France than in several neighbouring markets and the United States:

CountryShare of the population with a membershipYear
France≈ 10%2024
Spain≈ 13%2024
Netherlands≈ 19%2024
United States24.9%2024

The European rates are rounded estimates from EuropeActive / Deloitte, reported by Basic-Fit. The US rate covers people aged 6 and over, so the populations are not strictly comparable. Basic-Fit, 2025 annual report, p. 16, HFA, 2024 data.

Growth continues in the United States: 81 million members in 2025, up 5.2% year on year, representing 26.1% of people aged 6 and over. Membership reaches 35.5% among 18–24-year-olds. HFA, 2025 data.

Gen Z accounts for 46% of new gym memberships observed by ABC Fitness between January and May 2026, compared with 32% for millennials. This platform data measures the share of new sign-ups, not visit frequency or the behaviour of an entire generation. ABC Fitness, 2026 mid-year report.

For our clubs: make group classes and recovery part of a health routine. The gap between countries suggests room for growth; acceptable pricing and local demand still need to be measured.

3. The need for social connection is strong

In France, 24% of people aged 15 and over reported feeling lonely often, every day or almost every day in 2025. That rises to 28% in cities with more than 100,000 residents, compared with 21% in rural areas. This measures a feeling of loneliness, which is distinct from having few social relationships. Fondation de France / CRÉDOC, Solitudes 2025.

The decline in meeting friends is particularly marked among young people. Across 21 European OECD countries, the share of 16–24-year-olds seeing friends daily fell from 44% in 2015 to 36% in 2022. This decline began before Covid. Across a group of 22 European OECD countries, the share of young people feeling lonely most or all of the time also rose by 1 percentage point between 2018 and 2022, while the average across all ages remained stable. OECD, Social Connections and Loneliness, 2025.

For our clubs: design the club’s social life from the start. Classes at regular times, shared recovery rituals and space to keep talking afterwards. The ability to build those habits should show up in retention and referrals.

These trends support the Social Club thesis. The next proof must be local: members who pay, return and invite people they know.

The vision

Build a network of social clubs in premium cities outside Paris, centred on training, recovery and belonging. We are looking for places with the local spending power, recurring demand and catchment to support a premium club experience.

The first club will establish the experience: coached sessions, recovery built into the routine and a community that makes people want to return every week. The location will be chosen on the strength of local demand, the building and its economics.

From there, develop full clubs where the catchment supports them and more compact spaces centred on group classes in smaller cities. Each format must earn its place through its own economics.

The long-term ambition

A hospitality brand at the intersection of three inspirations:

  • Soho House: membership, a sense of belonging and a brand people return to at home and when travelling.
  • La Montgolfière: training, culture and social life sharing the same space.
  • Mama Shelter: lively hospitality, characterful places and spaces where locals and visitors meet.

In our version, health takes the place of partying as the organising idea. People gather around movement, recovery, good food and better sleep. The energy and pleasure of a social destination, built around feeling better.

Hotels are the long-term extension of that relationship. Sleep, movement, nutrition and recovery will shape the whole stay, with local members keeping the place active throughout the year.

A brand you belong to at home and return to when you travel.

The path in five steps

  1. The first club proves demand. Measure paid memberships at the target price, retention and referrals.
  2. The next site proves repeatability. An employed team must be able to deliver the experience and attract members beyond the founder’s network.
  3. The compact format opens up more markets. Group classes without a gym floor, a social space and, as a working assumption, a compact recovery offering. Its economics must be modelled separately.
  4. Hotels extend an existing relationship. The preferred option is to develop the brand and operations with property partners funding the buildings.
  5. Growth is funded by evidence. Each format must justify its opening investment, cash needs during ramp-up and payback period.

The numbers and their confidence levels

Reference pointHow to read it
€138.31Calculated monthly membership revenue per member: €179 including VAT ÷ 1.20 × 95% price realisation × 97.6% collection rate. Model assumptions.
Around 890 membersIllustrative capacity for one 1,335 m² candidate property, assuming 1.5 m² per member. The site has not been selected for launch; actual capacity still needs peak-time validation.
€1.49 million / yearMembership revenue with an average of 900 paying members. Excludes ancillary sales.
66–79%Break-even levels of membership capacity stated in the initial study. Not reproduced from the exported costs alone; to be reconciled with the financial workbook.
€334Initial acquisition budget assumption. Cost per paying member, churn and ramp-up must justify this amount.
€677,000Reduction in the cash trough claimed by the previous presale scenario. This amount has neither been collected nor secured as funding.

The initial research was conducted on 1–3 September 2026. The strategic revision of 7 September 2026 adds the network vision, hotels and investor assessment. The project remains to be validated; no opening, commercial traction or achieved margin is being claimed.

How to read this dossier

The pages below move from the big picture to the detail. If you read only two: The verdict for the vision and the evidence investors need, and Club economics for revenue, margins and the model’s limitations.

The three databases at the bottom of the page are working tools: assumptions are revised, territories compared and checks completed.

The eight chapters

The three working databases

Territories: 52 markets ranked, from Grand Paris to Arcachon. Filter by Verdict to see only serious candidates, or sort by Commuting to Paris % to identify Île-de-France territories with their own economic base. The Sustainable price column uses the lower bound of the affordability ratio, 6.8% of the median standard of living. It is a conservative ceiling, not a target.

Assumptions: the model’s 28 parameters, each with its source, confidence level and the cost of being wrong. Filter by Confidence = Industry assumption or To verify, combined with Impact if wrong = Critical. This gives the exact list of evidence to collect in the field.

Checks: the 15 actions in the three-week protocol, grouped by wave. The five rows marked Decision gate are the points where failure stops the project or changes the target territory. Each gate must be passed before moving to the next wave.

🧾 What is not in Notion. The profit and loss model lives in an Excel workbook with 6 sheets and 189 formulas. It is recalculated in week 3 using the building’s actual figures. Detailed research notes, including local market reviews, the Île-de-France demographic database and field interview kit, are in the Claude project “New start”.

Movement research · Archive v1 · Remi Sablong · Edition dated 7 September 2026