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Definitions

The terms used in this business plan. Search, or open a term to read its meaning.

62 definitions · A–Z

Ancillary gross marginMembers & revenue

The share of ancillary sales left after the goods and direct delivery costs behind those sales. It has not yet paid the club’s rent, payroll or other operating costs.

Example: A 55% ancillary gross margin leaves €55 from €100 of ancillary sales and assigns €45 to direct costs.

Ancillary salesMembers & revenue

Additional revenue, such as drinks or services, assumed to be a percentage of collected membership revenue excluding VAT. The percentage is a spending assumption, not a count of members buying something.

Annual member churnMembers & revenue

The assumed share of a starting group of members who leave over a year, converted into a monthly departure rate. Retention is the share who stay; the scenario acquires replacements to maintain its planned membership path.

In this modelMonthly churn = 1 − (1 − annual churn)^(1/12).

Annual rent per m²Operating costs

The annual base rent for each square metre, converted into a monthly building cost. Charges and property tax are added separately, while the rent deposit ties up cash at opening.

In this modelMonthly base rent = floor area × annual rent per m² ÷ 12.

AssumptionModel & research

A value or belief used to explore how the club could work before it has been established. Dossier means it comes from the existing research; Planning means an added allowance, and neither label makes it a verified fact.

Average membersMembers & revenue

The average of membership at the start and end of a month, used for that month’s revenue and member-related costs. Calculations retain fractions of a member even though the table rounds them for display.

In this modelAverage members = (starting members + closing members) ÷ 2.

Base & Aggressive scenariosModel & research

Base starts at 40% of capacity and takes 18 months to target. Aggressive starts at 60% and takes 9 months. Price, target membership, churn, CAC, staffing and AI allowances start identical. They are alternative assumptions, not demand forecasts. Edits are shared between Vision and Business Model through the scenario link and saved in this browser when available.

Building charges & property taxOperating costs

An added monthly building expense calculated as a percentage of base rent. Energy and the other operating-cost allowance are separate lines, so they are not included here.

Capital expenditureOpening costs

Cash spent to acquire or improve assets used over time, such as equipment and fit-out. The model’s opening investment is broader: it also includes pre-opening expenses, the rent deposit and member acquisition, so the full opening total is not all capital expenditure.

Cash balanceProjection

The cash remaining after entered equity and the loan fund opening costs and all cash flows so far. A negative balance shows funding is missing in the scenario; a positive balance below the minimum reserve still falls short of the chosen buffer.

In this modelCash balance = opening equity + loan − opening investment + cumulative post-opening net cash flow.

Cash break-even while repayingProfitability

The steady membership needed to cover operating costs, replacement investment and the monthly loan payment while repayments apply. It is higher than operating break-even when those extra cash outflows are present, and the loan portion stops at maturity.

In this model(Monthly fixed costs + replacement investment + loan payment) ÷ contribution per member, rounded up.

Cash shortfall after openingFunding & cash

The largest accumulated cash deficit from operating months 1–36, beyond the opening investment, after replacement investment and loan payments. Cumulative cash flow is the running total of inflows and outflows, so earlier cash generation can cover later losses instead of simply adding every loss-making month.

In this modelCash shortfall after opening = max(0, −lowest cumulative post-opening cash flow).

CatchmentModel & research

The surrounding area from which people could realistically travel to the club. The calculator does not estimate how many people in that area will join, even when a larger building increases the assumed membership.

Club floor areaMembers & revenue

The building size used to calculate capacity, rent, part of payroll, energy and fit-out. Equipment, pre-opening costs and the base payroll allowance stay fixed when you change this input.

Collected membership revenue per memberMembers & revenue

The monthly membership revenue retained per average member after removing VAT and applying price realization and collection. Ancillary sales are added separately.

In this modelSubscription price ÷ (1 + VAT rate) × realization rate × collection rate.

Example: At the starting settings: €179 ÷ 1.20 × 95% × 97.6% = €138.31 per member-month.

Collection rateMembers & revenue

The share of membership charges assumed to be collected after price reductions. The uncollected share reduces revenue once; it is not charged again as an operating expense.

Contribution per memberProfitability

The monthly amount one member contributes toward fixed costs after membership and ancillary revenue, ancillary direct costs, consumables, payment fees, AI usage and replacement CAC. This is a steady-membership measure; acquisition for additional growth costs extra.

Cost to acquire a memberMembers & revenue

CAC is the assumed cost of gaining one paying member, applied to opening members, growth and replacements for members who leave. It is not cost per lead, and this model uses CAC instead of adding the old percentage-of-revenue marketing budget.

In this modelMonthly acquisition spending = CAC × (net membership growth + departures among starting members).

DepreciationModel & research

An accounting expense that spreads the cost of an asset over its useful life rather than charging the purchase as one operating expense. This simplified model omits depreciation from operating profit and records the actual opening purchase as a cash outflow.

Energy per m²Operating costs

An annual energy allowance per square metre, multiplied by area and divided by 12. It stays constant across projected months rather than tracking attendance, weather or actual equipment usage.

Equipment purchaseOpening costs

The equipment budget paid before opening. This input stays fixed when area changes, and no equipment lease payment is charged in the model.

Equipment replacement reserveFunding & cash

Despite the input’s name, this model treats the amount as cash spent every month on replacement investment, below operating profit. It differs from the minimum cash reserve, which remains available in the bank; routine repairs are already in other operating costs.

Equity available at openingFunding & cash

Money contributed by owners or investors and available in month 0. It reduces the remaining funding gap, and the model assigns it no loan repayments, dividends or investor return.

Estimated capacityMembers & revenue

The model’s estimate of how many memberships the building can support, rounded down to a whole member. Actual capacity still depends on the layout, timetable and busiest periods.

In this modelCapacity = floor area ÷ space per member, rounded down.

Evidence & validationModel & research

Evidence is something observed or documented, such as paid memberships, retention data or a supplier quote. Validation means checking whether that evidence supports an assumption for this particular club; a plausible calculator result alone does not do that.

Fit-out budget per m²Opening costs

The assumed cost per square metre to prepare the building, including studio, recovery and social-space works. The total scales with area and is paid in month 0; equipment is a separate purchase.

Fixed operating costsOperating costs

Rent, building charges, payroll, energy, other operating costs and the shared AI platform, charged every month regardless of membership. These costs form the base for the single-club minimum cash reserve. In the group view the shared AI platform moves to central costs and is counted once.

Gross funding needFunding & cash

The largest cumulative cash deficit across months 0–36, called the cash trough, plus the minimum cash reserve. It includes opening costs and any cash lost during operation, including loan repayments, before deducting entered equity or loan proceeds; it does not fund losses after month 36.

In this modelGross funding need = opening investment + cash shortfall after opening + minimum cash reserve.

Group EBITDAProfitability

The total operating result of the owned clubs, less site launch expenses, central overhead and shared AI costs. Each club repeats the selected assumptions from its opening month. Pre-opening costs and founding-member acquisition are expensed in the opening year; shared AI setup is expensed once in year one. Buildings and equipment are cash investments, not EBITDA costs. No franchise, hotel, AI or internal licence fees create revenue.

In this modelGroup EBITDA = site trading EBITDA − site launch expenses − central overhead − shared AI platform and setup.

Group funding needFunding & cash

The cash required across seven years of owned-club openings, allowing for the reserve required at each stage and cash generated by earlier clubs. It includes AI setup, opening investments and central costs. This group projection is unfinanced: it does not copy the single club’s equity, loans or repayments to other locations. EBITDA profitability does not mean those opening investments have been recovered.

Included AI training coachOperating costs

The coach is included in club membership, with zero separate AI subscription or licence revenue in the forecast. Setup is paid once before the first club opens; monthly platform and product support is counted once, and usage scales with active members. These are editable planning allowances. The model does not automatically lower churn, CAC or human coaching payroll because AI is present.

In this modelMonthly usage cost = average members × AI adoption percentage × cost per active member.

Loan drawn at openingFunding & cash

Borrowed cash received in month 0 that reduces the remaining funding gap but creates monthly repayments. Principal is the borrowed amount still owed; receiving or repaying it is a financing cash movement, not revenue or an operating cost.

Loan interest & termFunding & cash

Loan annual interest is the assumed yearly borrowing rate, divided by 12 to charge monthly interest on the remaining principal. Loan term is the number of monthly repayments; together these inputs determine the payment amount and when repayments end.

Member consumablesOperating costs

Water, laundry and supplies expressed as an annual amount per member. The model divides that amount by 12 and multiplies by the month’s average membership.

Members at openingMembers & revenue

The assumed starting memberships, entered as a percentage of capacity and capped at the target percentage. Their acquisition cost is paid before opening, but no advance subscription payments or presale cash are assumed collected.

Membership VATMembers & revenue

The tax percentage used here to convert the displayed subscription price into revenue excluding VAT. The model also treats costs as net of recoverable VAT and leaves out the timing of VAT payments and recoveries.

In this modelPrice excluding VAT = price including VAT ÷ (1 + VAT rate).

Minimum cash reserveFunding & cash

A cushion kept in the bank for unexpected costs or slower sales, set as a number of months of fixed operating costs. It stays available even at the lowest projected cash balance: it is added to funding needs but is not assumed spent.

In this modelMinimum cash reserve = monthly fixed operating costs × reserve months.

Example: At a reserve setting of 3, keep three months of the scenario’s fixed operating costs available. Group reserves grow with the number of open clubs and central costs.

Monthly loan paymentFunding & cash

The level monthly payment covering interest and repayment of principal, starting in month 1 and ending at the loan term. Payments reduce projected cash flow but are excluded from operating profit; no fees or repayment holiday are modelled.

Months to targetMembers & revenue

The time allowed for membership to rise in equal monthly steps from opening to the target, then remain level. This is an assumed path, with no opening delay or test of whether enough people can be acquired each month.

Net cash flowProjection

The cash generated or used in one operating month after operating costs, replacement investment and loan payments, before income tax. A positive month adds cash but does not mean earlier losses or the opening investment have been recovered.

In this modelMonthly net cash flow = operating profit − replacement investment − loan payment.

Opening investmentOpening costs

All cash assigned to month 0: fit-out, equipment, contingency, pre-opening costs, the rent deposit and acquisition of opening members. This total includes expenses and tied-up cash as well as purchased assets.

Operating break-evenProfitability

The steady membership needed to cover operating costs, including replacement CAC, rounded up to a whole member. It excludes loan payments, replacement investment and tax, and cannot be reached within this building if it exceeds estimated capacity.

In this modelOperating break-even members = monthly fixed costs ÷ contribution per member, rounded up.

Operating costsOperating costs

The monthly total of fixed costs, variable costs and acquisition spending; variable costs here are ancillary direct costs, member consumables, payment fees and AI usage. The projection includes both growth and replacement acquisition, while the target cost summary includes replacement acquisition only.

Operating marginProfitability

The share of total revenue left as operating profit at target membership. A negative percentage means operating costs exceed revenue; it is not a return on the money invested.

In this modelOperating margin = operating profit ÷ revenue × 100.

Operating profitProfitability

Revenue minus operating costs, before depreciation, financing, replacement investment and income tax in this model. The headline shows a steady month at target membership; Year 1 operating result sums the first 12 trading months, including growth acquisition. It excludes the month-zero pre-opening, founding-member acquisition and AI setup expenses; the group EBITDA view includes those expenses in each opening year.

In this modelOperating profit = revenue − fixed costs − variable costs − acquisition spending.

Other operating costsOperating costs

A fixed monthly allowance for cleaning, insurance, software, accounting, routine repairs and administration. It excludes every separately listed cost and does not automatically increase when the building gets larger.

Payback periodProfitability

The time needed for cumulative cash generated to recover an initial investment, using a consistent basis for project cash or investor cash. This calculator does not compute payback: its profitable-month milestones show when current operations cover current costs, not when the opening investment has been recovered.

Payment feesOperating costs

The assumed cost of processing payments, calculated here as a percentage of all revenue excluding VAT. This simplified billing basis may differ from a provider’s actual pricing.

Payroll & coachesOperating costs

The staff budget combines a fixed annual base with an additional annual allowance per square metre, then divides the total by 12. It includes employer costs, management, reception and coaches; no separate instructor bill is added.

In this modelMonthly payroll = (base annual payroll + payroll per m² × floor area) ÷ 12.

Pre-opening costsOpening costs

An upfront allowance for design, permits, legal work, pre-opening rent and the team before launch. It stays fixed when area changes and excludes equipment, fit-out, the deposit and member acquisition.

Price realizationMembers & revenue

The percentage of the advertised price retained after discounts, free periods and similar reductions. It is applied before the collection rate, so a price reduction and a missed payment have separate effects.

Profitability milestonesProjection

Sustained operating profit is the first month with a non-negative operating result that stays non-negative through month 36. Cash flow turns positive applies the same test after replacement investment and loan payments; neither milestone means the opening investment has been paid back.

Refundable rent depositOpening costs

Cash tied up with the landlord at opening, expressed as a number of months of base rent. It increases funding needs without being an operating expense, and the model assumes no refund within 36 months.

Remaining funding gapFunding & cash

The gross funding need still uncovered after deducting equity and the loan entered for opening. If entered funding exceeds the need, Funding above minimum shows the surplus; entering an amount does not establish that it is secured.

In this modelRemaining gap = max(0, gross funding need − opening equity − loan drawn).

RevenueMembers & revenue

Membership revenue plus ancillary sales, excluding VAT and before expenses. Revenue at target uses steady target membership; each projected month uses average membership during that month.

RunwayFunding & cash

The length of time available cash can support a business before it needs more funding, given its cash inflows and outflows. This calculator uses a fixed 36-month projection horizon; it does not calculate a separate runway duration.

Simplified modelModel & research

Simple calculator and Full model project one full club over 36 months. Group model repeats that club’s calculation for up to five opening dates over seven years, then deducts central and shared AI costs. Vision reads the same scenario. Smaller buildings are not automatically a separate compact-club design. The model leaves out seasonality, inflation and terminal value.

Space per memberMembers & revenue

The assumed floor area needed per registered member, used to estimate total membership capacity. It does not mean every member attends at once or that class seats, showers and recovery facilities have been checked.

Subscription priceMembers & revenue

The advertised monthly membership price, including the VAT entered in the model. Discounts and collection losses reduce the revenue kept, and raising this price does not automatically reduce assumed demand.

Target membershipMembers & revenue

The share of estimated capacity the scenario aims to reach and then maintain. This percentage measures memberships sold, not the number of people present at the same time.

In this modelTarget members = capacity × target membership percentage.

Working capitalModel & research

Money needed for day-to-day operations because inventory, customer payments and supplier payments happen at different times; those timing differences can absorb or release cash. The model does not calculate those detailed balances, so its minimum cash reserve is a separate buffer rather than a working-capital forecast.

Works & equipment contingencyOpening costs

An allowance for fit-out and equipment costs exceeding their base budgets, calculated as a percentage of both. The calculator includes the entire allowance as a month-0 cash outflow, separately from the minimum cash reserve kept in the bank.

In this modelContingency = (fit-out + equipment purchase) × contingency percentage.

Definitions describe this simplified model. Close this panel to return to your numbers.
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Archived research v1. Preserved for reference; its assumptions have not been revalidated for the new research.

The original study

8 · Sources & methodology

Edition dated 7 September 2026

💡 Where the figures come from, how they were constructed and the errors corrected along the way.

Strategic revision of 7 September 2026

The vision adds a network of full and compact clubs, followed by hotels centered on wellness and recovery. These are strategic directions and assumptions, with no openings or traction announced.

The financial review uses the exported parameters. It calculates collected revenue and a conditional margin sensitivity. It does not constitute an audit of the Excel workbook, which is absent from the published dossier.

Primary sources consulted for this revision:

The Territories, Assumptions and Checks databases retain the original study's data; their inclusion does not constitute validation. The updated limitations in the chapters must accompany any use of these figures.

Introduction sources: underlying trends

Additional research on 7 September 2026. The figures describe their surveyed populations; they measure neither local demand at the target price nor the margins of a social club.

  • Social club offers: Remedy Place, Othership and Rune. Official websites consulted for locations and services. These examples establish that the format exists, without constituting a global census or dating a wave of Paris openings.
  • Fitness membership in Europe: Basic-Fit, Annual Report 2025, p. 16, citing EuropeActive / Deloitte, European Health & Fitness Market Report 2025, p. 111. 2024 data, rounded national rates: France ≈ 10%, Spain ≈ 13%, Netherlands ≈ 19%. The summary page does not detail the denominator's age ranges; do not treat the US comparison as a harmonized measure.
  • US membership: HFA, 2024 data and HFA, 2025 data. Annual survey of around 18,000 residents aged 6 and over. Members are distinct from occasional users without a membership. Rates: 24.9% in 2024, 26.1% in 2025; 35.5% among 18–24-year-olds in 2025.
  • Motivations and participation in France: INJEP / CRÉDOC, National Sports Participation Barometer 2025, especially p. 53. Quota survey of 4,010 residents aged 15 and over, in metropolitan France and the five overseas departments and regions, from 30 June to 15 July 2025. Motivations concern people who participated in the previous twelve months; regular participation means at least 52 sessions per year and covers more than gym-based fitness.
  • Generations: ABC Fitness, Mid-Year 2026 report, data from 1 January to 31 May 2026. Gen Z: 46% of new gym members; millennials: 32%. Proprietary data, not representative of a national population. The press release does not specify the subset's exact geography. A share of new memberships does not prove a higher visit frequency. Scope of the ABC ecosystem.
  • Loneliness in France: Fondation de France / CRÉDOC, Solitudes 2025, published in January 2026, survey conducted in July 2025 among people aged 15 and over. Feeling lonely “every day or almost every day” or “often”: 24%; 28% in cities with more than 100,000 residents, 21% in rural areas. This prevalence level alone does not measure an increase.
  • Changes in social connections: OECD, Social Connections and Loneliness in OECD Countries, 2025, chapter 4, figures 4.5 and 4.10. Daily meetings with friends among 16–24-year-olds: 44% in 2015, then 36% in 2022, an average across 21 European countries. Loneliness most or all of the time over the previous four weeks: +1 percentage point among young people between 2018 and 2022 in 22 European countries; no statistically significant increase in the average across all ages. The wording and scope differ from the French survey.

Data sources

Demographics and income

  • INSEE RP 2023: population by occupational category, by place of residence and workplace. The model's reference count is by place of residence.
  • INSEE Filosofi 2023: median standard of living by municipality. Used for the affordability ratio (price / standard of living).
  • INSEE MOBPRO 2022 (detailed file): commuting flows by occupational category. Used to calculate the outflow to Paris from Île-de-France catchments.
  • INSEE ARM 2023: occupational categories by municipal arrondissement. Published, contrary to my initial assumption: managers and professionals account for 42.3% in Marseille's 6th arrondissement, 37.6% in the 7th and 38.9% in the 8th.

Comparables and market

  • Official La Montgolfière pages (Canal, Lamarck) for floor areas, equipment, prices and services.
  • Local broker listings for commercial / light-industrial premises and office rents.
  • Price surveys of premium and wellness clubs in Marseille and Paris.

Processing pipeline

  1. Build a database outside Île-de-France: 42 municipalities × 25 indicators.
  2. Build an Île-de-France database: 61 rows (EPTs, EPCIs, municipalities) with actual counts of managers and professionals and commuting flows by occupational category.
  3. The original notes describe a Python P&L model, exported to an Excel workbook with 6 tabs and 189 formulas and reported as recalculated without errors. Because this workbook is not attached to the published dossier, that check could not be reproduced during the 7 September revision.

Errors made and corrected

They are listed here because they show where the model was most fragile.

ErrorCorrectionImpact
Marseille missing from the ranking (grouped into “Aix-Marseille”)Three geographic levels added: metropolitan area, municipality, southern triangleMarseille becomes a candidate again
Marseille managers and professionals counted by workplace (90,532)Count by place of residence: 79,635 (23.8%)Catchment revised downward
Southern triangle estimated (~23,000 managers and professionals, 897/km²)Actual ARM data: 26,617 managers and professionals, 1,006/km²Catchment revised upward
Coworking attributed to Canal (Paris 10th arrondissement)It belongs to Lamarck (Paris 18th arrondissement)Thesis fully rewritten
Canal assumed to have 2,000 m² and a full equipment set1,700 m², 14 Technogym machinesMaximum rent: €385 → €571/m²/year
Paris suburbs missing from the ranking22 Île-de-France catchments addedThree serious new candidates

What has not been verified

  • La Montgolfière membership numbers (~1,200) are a public estimate, not confirmed by the operator.
  • Rents in southern Marseille (€90–150/m²/year) come from listings, not signed leases.
  • No actual fit-out quote has been obtained.

Related documents

The Claude project “New start” contains the detailed working notes: Marseille market assessment, TAM for second-tier cities, Paris suburbs demographic database, La Montgolfière reverse engineering, mini business plan, southern Marseille rents and coworking, blind spot audit, validation protocol and field interview kit. Research window: 1–3 September 2026.

Movement research · Archive v1 · Remi Sablong · Edition dated 7 September 2026