Archived research v1. Preserved for reference; its assumptions have not been revalidated for the new research.
Archived dossier data
Assumptions
Edition dated 7 September 2026
28 / 28 assumptions
| Affordability ratio | 6.8 to 9.9% of the local median living standard (annual) | Comparables | High | Pricing | French premium comparables, cross-referenced with Filosofi 2023 | Expand the club sample; check that the lower bound holds outside major metropolitan areas |
| Ancillary revenue | 12% of membership revenue, 55% margin | Industry assumption | Medium | Ancillary revenue | Industry assumption | Average spend observed at a comparable operator |
| Annual churn | 12%/year | Industry assumption | Critical | Acquisition | Assumed by convention, not observed | Operator interviews; failing that, a 20% stress scenario. This is the model’s second-largest driver after rent. |
| Branded clothing retail corner | Ruled out. Opportunity cost of €34,690/year | Back-calculated | Low | Ancillary revenue | Space allocation trade-off: club margin per m² exceeds retail margin at the expected traffic level | Revisit if non-member traffic becomes significant |
| Break-even point | 66% (low rent) to 79% (Paris rent) of membership capacity | Back-calculated | Critical | Fixed costs | Model output | Update the model with actual building figures in week 3 |
| Building conversion cost | Cost per m², without an allowance for structural contingencies | To verify | Critical | Property | None. No quote obtained | Obtain a cost range from a construction project manager for the actual building, including a contingency allowance |
| CAC ceiling | €334 per member acquired | Back-calculated | Critical | Acquisition | Derived from the marketing budget ÷ required acquisitions, rather than an LTV:CAC calculation | Landing-page test campaign: measure cost per qualified lead, then the lead→member conversion rate |
| Capture rate at break-even | 2 to 3% | Back-calculated | Critical | Catchment | Derived from the break-even point and the same catchment | Same source as above |
| Capture rate at full membership capacity | 4 to 5% of managers and professionals in the 15-minute travel-time catchment | Back-calculated | Critical | Catchment | Back-calculated from La Montgolfière Canal and Lamarck | Interview 3–5 premium club operators outside Paris about their members / actual catchment ratio |
| Energy | €83/m²/year | Comparables | Medium | Fixed costs | Industry ratio for a building with changing rooms and hot water | DPE energy assessment and the building’s historical consumption |
| Equipment finance lease | 22.16% of the equipment package / year | Comparables | Medium | Fixed costs | Industry terms for a 5-year finance lease | Quotes from two providers |
| Equipment package | ≈ €200,000 (14 Technogym machines) | Observed | High | Fixed costs | Observed at Canal; corrected from an initial estimate of €560k | Supplier quote |
| Floor area per member | 1.5 m² / member | Observed | High | Catchment | Canal: 1,700 m² for ≈ 1,200 members | Compare with 2 or 3 other French premium clubs |
| Marketing budget | 4% of revenue | Industry assumption | High | Acquisition | Income statement line item | Compare with published industry ratios |
| Maximum sustainable rent | €571/m²/year (light equipment package) | Back-calculated | High | Property | Model, after correcting the equipment package to 14 machines ≈ €200k | Recalculate using the actual equipment quote |
| Minimum catchment | ≈ 30,000 managers and professionals in the travel-time catchment | Back-calculated | Critical | Catchment | 1,200 members ÷ 4% capture rate | Recount resident managers and professionals in the actual travel-time catchment, at IRIS level |
| Net unpaid fees | 2.4% of membership revenue | Industry assumption | Medium | Pricing | Fitness industry assumption | Operator data; direct-debit provider |
| Nutritional supplement sales | Included. 5.5% VAT, low inventory, consistent with the positioning | Back-calculated | Low | Ancillary revenue | Model trade-off | Test during the first 3 months of operation |
| Payroll including employer contributions | €150,000 + €165/m²/year | Industry assumption | Critical | Fixed costs | Built from individual roles (management, reception, coaches) | Build the actual staffing plan for the selected site and cost each role |
| Prelaunch value | €677,000 in cash | Back-calculated | High | Acquisition | Cash-flow model output | Actual presale test in week 3 |
| Price excluding VAT | €149.17 (20% VAT on membership) | Observed | Low | Pricing | Tax rule | Nothing to test. Statutory parameter |
| Reference membership price | €179/month including VAT (€190 in Paris 10) | Observed | High | Pricing | Premium club price survey | Presale test at the founding-member rate |
| Reference travel-time catchment | 15 minutes | Industry assumption | High | Catchment | Industry practice; treated as a uniform circle | Map the actual travel-time catchment for each transport mode; urban barriers (railway, boulevard) can reduce the apparent catchment by 30% |
| Rent: Paris (building conversion) | €300 to €385/m²/year | Comparables | Critical | Property | Listings and comparables in Paris 10 / 18 | Three local brokers, with a one-page brief |
| Rent: Southern Marseille | €90 to €150/m²/year | To verify | Critical | Property | Local listings for light-industrial premises. No signed lease reviewed | Marseille brokers; obtain actual terms for an identified property |
| Revenue realization rate | 95% (membership freezes, free months) | Industry assumption | Medium | Pricing | Industry assumption | Operator data |
| Service charges + property tax | 18% of rent | Industry assumption | Medium | Fixed costs | Industry practice | Request the service-charge reconciliation for the target building |
| Variable cost per member | Water €18.75 + laundry €37.50 + consumables €20 / year | Comparables | Low | Variable costs | Industry ratios | Laundry and consumables quotes |