Open Coach
Movement

Definitions

The terms used in this business plan. Search, or open a term to read its meaning.

62 definitions · A–Z

Ancillary gross marginMembers & revenue

The share of ancillary sales left after the goods and direct delivery costs behind those sales. It has not yet paid the club’s rent, payroll or other operating costs.

Example: A 55% ancillary gross margin leaves €55 from €100 of ancillary sales and assigns €45 to direct costs.

Ancillary salesMembers & revenue

Additional revenue, such as drinks or services, assumed to be a percentage of collected membership revenue excluding VAT. The percentage is a spending assumption, not a count of members buying something.

Annual member churnMembers & revenue

The assumed share of a starting group of members who leave over a year, converted into a monthly departure rate. Retention is the share who stay; the scenario acquires replacements to maintain its planned membership path.

In this modelMonthly churn = 1 − (1 − annual churn)^(1/12).

Annual rent per m²Operating costs

The annual base rent for each square metre, converted into a monthly building cost. Charges and property tax are added separately, while the rent deposit ties up cash at opening.

In this modelMonthly base rent = floor area × annual rent per m² ÷ 12.

AssumptionModel & research

A value or belief used to explore how the club could work before it has been established. Dossier means it comes from the existing research; Planning means an added allowance, and neither label makes it a verified fact.

Average membersMembers & revenue

The average of membership at the start and end of a month, used for that month’s revenue and member-related costs. Calculations retain fractions of a member even though the table rounds them for display.

In this modelAverage members = (starting members + closing members) ÷ 2.

Base & Aggressive scenariosModel & research

Base starts at 40% of capacity and takes 18 months to target. Aggressive starts at 60% and takes 9 months. Price, target membership, churn, CAC, staffing and AI allowances start identical. They are alternative assumptions, not demand forecasts. Edits are shared between Vision and Business Model through the scenario link and saved in this browser when available.

Building charges & property taxOperating costs

An added monthly building expense calculated as a percentage of base rent. Energy and the other operating-cost allowance are separate lines, so they are not included here.

Capital expenditureOpening costs

Cash spent to acquire or improve assets used over time, such as equipment and fit-out. The model’s opening investment is broader: it also includes pre-opening expenses, the rent deposit and member acquisition, so the full opening total is not all capital expenditure.

Cash balanceProjection

The cash remaining after entered equity and the loan fund opening costs and all cash flows so far. A negative balance shows funding is missing in the scenario; a positive balance below the minimum reserve still falls short of the chosen buffer.

In this modelCash balance = opening equity + loan − opening investment + cumulative post-opening net cash flow.

Cash break-even while repayingProfitability

The steady membership needed to cover operating costs, replacement investment and the monthly loan payment while repayments apply. It is higher than operating break-even when those extra cash outflows are present, and the loan portion stops at maturity.

In this model(Monthly fixed costs + replacement investment + loan payment) ÷ contribution per member, rounded up.

Cash shortfall after openingFunding & cash

The largest accumulated cash deficit from operating months 1–36, beyond the opening investment, after replacement investment and loan payments. Cumulative cash flow is the running total of inflows and outflows, so earlier cash generation can cover later losses instead of simply adding every loss-making month.

In this modelCash shortfall after opening = max(0, −lowest cumulative post-opening cash flow).

CatchmentModel & research

The surrounding area from which people could realistically travel to the club. The calculator does not estimate how many people in that area will join, even when a larger building increases the assumed membership.

Club floor areaMembers & revenue

The building size used to calculate capacity, rent, part of payroll, energy and fit-out. Equipment, pre-opening costs and the base payroll allowance stay fixed when you change this input.

Collected membership revenue per memberMembers & revenue

The monthly membership revenue retained per average member after removing VAT and applying price realization and collection. Ancillary sales are added separately.

In this modelSubscription price ÷ (1 + VAT rate) × realization rate × collection rate.

Example: At the starting settings: €179 ÷ 1.20 × 95% × 97.6% = €138.31 per member-month.

Collection rateMembers & revenue

The share of membership charges assumed to be collected after price reductions. The uncollected share reduces revenue once; it is not charged again as an operating expense.

Contribution per memberProfitability

The monthly amount one member contributes toward fixed costs after membership and ancillary revenue, ancillary direct costs, consumables, payment fees, AI usage and replacement CAC. This is a steady-membership measure; acquisition for additional growth costs extra.

Cost to acquire a memberMembers & revenue

CAC is the assumed cost of gaining one paying member, applied to opening members, growth and replacements for members who leave. It is not cost per lead, and this model uses CAC instead of adding the old percentage-of-revenue marketing budget.

In this modelMonthly acquisition spending = CAC × (net membership growth + departures among starting members).

DepreciationModel & research

An accounting expense that spreads the cost of an asset over its useful life rather than charging the purchase as one operating expense. This simplified model omits depreciation from operating profit and records the actual opening purchase as a cash outflow.

Energy per m²Operating costs

An annual energy allowance per square metre, multiplied by area and divided by 12. It stays constant across projected months rather than tracking attendance, weather or actual equipment usage.

Equipment purchaseOpening costs

The equipment budget paid before opening. This input stays fixed when area changes, and no equipment lease payment is charged in the model.

Equipment replacement reserveFunding & cash

Despite the input’s name, this model treats the amount as cash spent every month on replacement investment, below operating profit. It differs from the minimum cash reserve, which remains available in the bank; routine repairs are already in other operating costs.

Equity available at openingFunding & cash

Money contributed by owners or investors and available in month 0. It reduces the remaining funding gap, and the model assigns it no loan repayments, dividends or investor return.

Estimated capacityMembers & revenue

The model’s estimate of how many memberships the building can support, rounded down to a whole member. Actual capacity still depends on the layout, timetable and busiest periods.

In this modelCapacity = floor area ÷ space per member, rounded down.

Evidence & validationModel & research

Evidence is something observed or documented, such as paid memberships, retention data or a supplier quote. Validation means checking whether that evidence supports an assumption for this particular club; a plausible calculator result alone does not do that.

Fit-out budget per m²Opening costs

The assumed cost per square metre to prepare the building, including studio, recovery and social-space works. The total scales with area and is paid in month 0; equipment is a separate purchase.

Fixed operating costsOperating costs

Rent, building charges, payroll, energy, other operating costs and the shared AI platform, charged every month regardless of membership. These costs form the base for the single-club minimum cash reserve. In the group view the shared AI platform moves to central costs and is counted once.

Gross funding needFunding & cash

The largest cumulative cash deficit across months 0–36, called the cash trough, plus the minimum cash reserve. It includes opening costs and any cash lost during operation, including loan repayments, before deducting entered equity or loan proceeds; it does not fund losses after month 36.

In this modelGross funding need = opening investment + cash shortfall after opening + minimum cash reserve.

Group EBITDAProfitability

The total operating result of the owned clubs, less site launch expenses, central overhead and shared AI costs. Each club repeats the selected assumptions from its opening month. Pre-opening costs and founding-member acquisition are expensed in the opening year; shared AI setup is expensed once in year one. Buildings and equipment are cash investments, not EBITDA costs. No franchise, hotel, AI or internal licence fees create revenue.

In this modelGroup EBITDA = site trading EBITDA − site launch expenses − central overhead − shared AI platform and setup.

Group funding needFunding & cash

The cash required across seven years of owned-club openings, allowing for the reserve required at each stage and cash generated by earlier clubs. It includes AI setup, opening investments and central costs. This group projection is unfinanced: it does not copy the single club’s equity, loans or repayments to other locations. EBITDA profitability does not mean those opening investments have been recovered.

Included AI training coachOperating costs

The coach is included in club membership, with zero separate AI subscription or licence revenue in the forecast. Setup is paid once before the first club opens; monthly platform and product support is counted once, and usage scales with active members. These are editable planning allowances. The model does not automatically lower churn, CAC or human coaching payroll because AI is present.

In this modelMonthly usage cost = average members × AI adoption percentage × cost per active member.

Loan drawn at openingFunding & cash

Borrowed cash received in month 0 that reduces the remaining funding gap but creates monthly repayments. Principal is the borrowed amount still owed; receiving or repaying it is a financing cash movement, not revenue or an operating cost.

Loan interest & termFunding & cash

Loan annual interest is the assumed yearly borrowing rate, divided by 12 to charge monthly interest on the remaining principal. Loan term is the number of monthly repayments; together these inputs determine the payment amount and when repayments end.

Member consumablesOperating costs

Water, laundry and supplies expressed as an annual amount per member. The model divides that amount by 12 and multiplies by the month’s average membership.

Members at openingMembers & revenue

The assumed starting memberships, entered as a percentage of capacity and capped at the target percentage. Their acquisition cost is paid before opening, but no advance subscription payments or presale cash are assumed collected.

Membership VATMembers & revenue

The tax percentage used here to convert the displayed subscription price into revenue excluding VAT. The model also treats costs as net of recoverable VAT and leaves out the timing of VAT payments and recoveries.

In this modelPrice excluding VAT = price including VAT ÷ (1 + VAT rate).

Minimum cash reserveFunding & cash

A cushion kept in the bank for unexpected costs or slower sales, set as a number of months of fixed operating costs. It stays available even at the lowest projected cash balance: it is added to funding needs but is not assumed spent.

In this modelMinimum cash reserve = monthly fixed operating costs × reserve months.

Example: At a reserve setting of 3, keep three months of the scenario’s fixed operating costs available. Group reserves grow with the number of open clubs and central costs.

Monthly loan paymentFunding & cash

The level monthly payment covering interest and repayment of principal, starting in month 1 and ending at the loan term. Payments reduce projected cash flow but are excluded from operating profit; no fees or repayment holiday are modelled.

Months to targetMembers & revenue

The time allowed for membership to rise in equal monthly steps from opening to the target, then remain level. This is an assumed path, with no opening delay or test of whether enough people can be acquired each month.

Net cash flowProjection

The cash generated or used in one operating month after operating costs, replacement investment and loan payments, before income tax. A positive month adds cash but does not mean earlier losses or the opening investment have been recovered.

In this modelMonthly net cash flow = operating profit − replacement investment − loan payment.

Opening investmentOpening costs

All cash assigned to month 0: fit-out, equipment, contingency, pre-opening costs, the rent deposit and acquisition of opening members. This total includes expenses and tied-up cash as well as purchased assets.

Operating break-evenProfitability

The steady membership needed to cover operating costs, including replacement CAC, rounded up to a whole member. It excludes loan payments, replacement investment and tax, and cannot be reached within this building if it exceeds estimated capacity.

In this modelOperating break-even members = monthly fixed costs ÷ contribution per member, rounded up.

Operating costsOperating costs

The monthly total of fixed costs, variable costs and acquisition spending; variable costs here are ancillary direct costs, member consumables, payment fees and AI usage. The projection includes both growth and replacement acquisition, while the target cost summary includes replacement acquisition only.

Operating marginProfitability

The share of total revenue left as operating profit at target membership. A negative percentage means operating costs exceed revenue; it is not a return on the money invested.

In this modelOperating margin = operating profit ÷ revenue × 100.

Operating profitProfitability

Revenue minus operating costs, before depreciation, financing, replacement investment and income tax in this model. The headline shows a steady month at target membership; Year 1 operating result sums the first 12 trading months, including growth acquisition. It excludes the month-zero pre-opening, founding-member acquisition and AI setup expenses; the group EBITDA view includes those expenses in each opening year.

In this modelOperating profit = revenue − fixed costs − variable costs − acquisition spending.

Other operating costsOperating costs

A fixed monthly allowance for cleaning, insurance, software, accounting, routine repairs and administration. It excludes every separately listed cost and does not automatically increase when the building gets larger.

Payback periodProfitability

The time needed for cumulative cash generated to recover an initial investment, using a consistent basis for project cash or investor cash. This calculator does not compute payback: its profitable-month milestones show when current operations cover current costs, not when the opening investment has been recovered.

Payment feesOperating costs

The assumed cost of processing payments, calculated here as a percentage of all revenue excluding VAT. This simplified billing basis may differ from a provider’s actual pricing.

Payroll & coachesOperating costs

The staff budget combines a fixed annual base with an additional annual allowance per square metre, then divides the total by 12. It includes employer costs, management, reception and coaches; no separate instructor bill is added.

In this modelMonthly payroll = (base annual payroll + payroll per m² × floor area) ÷ 12.

Pre-opening costsOpening costs

An upfront allowance for design, permits, legal work, pre-opening rent and the team before launch. It stays fixed when area changes and excludes equipment, fit-out, the deposit and member acquisition.

Price realizationMembers & revenue

The percentage of the advertised price retained after discounts, free periods and similar reductions. It is applied before the collection rate, so a price reduction and a missed payment have separate effects.

Profitability milestonesProjection

Sustained operating profit is the first month with a non-negative operating result that stays non-negative through month 36. Cash flow turns positive applies the same test after replacement investment and loan payments; neither milestone means the opening investment has been paid back.

Refundable rent depositOpening costs

Cash tied up with the landlord at opening, expressed as a number of months of base rent. It increases funding needs without being an operating expense, and the model assumes no refund within 36 months.

Remaining funding gapFunding & cash

The gross funding need still uncovered after deducting equity and the loan entered for opening. If entered funding exceeds the need, Funding above minimum shows the surplus; entering an amount does not establish that it is secured.

In this modelRemaining gap = max(0, gross funding need − opening equity − loan drawn).

RevenueMembers & revenue

Membership revenue plus ancillary sales, excluding VAT and before expenses. Revenue at target uses steady target membership; each projected month uses average membership during that month.

RunwayFunding & cash

The length of time available cash can support a business before it needs more funding, given its cash inflows and outflows. This calculator uses a fixed 36-month projection horizon; it does not calculate a separate runway duration.

Simplified modelModel & research

Simple calculator and Full model project one full club over 36 months. Group model repeats that club’s calculation for up to five opening dates over seven years, then deducts central and shared AI costs. Vision reads the same scenario. Smaller buildings are not automatically a separate compact-club design. The model leaves out seasonality, inflation and terminal value.

Space per memberMembers & revenue

The assumed floor area needed per registered member, used to estimate total membership capacity. It does not mean every member attends at once or that class seats, showers and recovery facilities have been checked.

Subscription priceMembers & revenue

The advertised monthly membership price, including the VAT entered in the model. Discounts and collection losses reduce the revenue kept, and raising this price does not automatically reduce assumed demand.

Target membershipMembers & revenue

The share of estimated capacity the scenario aims to reach and then maintain. This percentage measures memberships sold, not the number of people present at the same time.

In this modelTarget members = capacity × target membership percentage.

Working capitalModel & research

Money needed for day-to-day operations because inventory, customer payments and supplier payments happen at different times; those timing differences can absorb or release cash. The model does not calculate those detailed balances, so its minimum cash reserve is a separate buffer rather than a working-capital forecast.

Works & equipment contingencyOpening costs

An allowance for fit-out and equipment costs exceeding their base budgets, calculated as a percentage of both. The calculator includes the entire allowance as a month-0 cash outflow, separately from the minimum cash reserve kept in the bank.

In this modelContingency = (fit-out + equipment purchase) × contingency percentage.

Definitions describe this simplified model. Close this panel to return to your numbers.
Skip to the narrative
ResearchArchive

01 / Vision

La Mongo 2 · Draft v1 · 8 September 2026

Health replaces nightlife
as the reason to gather.

A social wellness club for premium French cities outside Paris — La Montgolfière's social club, Soho House's membership, a recovery and performance lab in the middle — with an AI coach that every member gets and every partner licenses.

Read the narrative Explore the four trends

Draft for iteration. Figures are indicative orders of magnitude from the v1 financial model and the La Montgolfière benchmark; nothing here is validated by an opening.

01

What we are

Three things under one roof, for one persona (30–45, CSP+ or independent, trains 3–5×/week, already pays €30–40 a class in a boutique studio and would rather have one place that is studio, gym, spa, café and office):

Train, together. Coached group classes are the product — reformer, Hyrox, strength, cycling, mobility, run and trail sessions that leave from the club, and signature formats you can't find elsewhere. The gym floor is there, but it is on top, not the reason you join.

Recover & measure. Sauna, hammam, cold plunge, massage; a performance lab (VO2max, gait, body composition) and blood-test partnerships (Lucis-type) so members track health, not just workouts.

Belong. Café, coworking, events, a capped membership. Health replaces nightlife as the reason to gather.

One AI coach

The AI coach ties it together: it knows your tests, your training, your recovery, and programs your week. Members pay nothing extra for something the best apps charge €50–120/month for.

02

Why €179 is not expensive

The proposed membership€179/ month
Two boutique classes a week€250–300/ month

The comparison is not the €25 gym; it is the boutique studio our persona already uses. Outside Paris, a reformer or Lagree class costs €28–38 drop-in, €25–35 in a 10-pack, and €220–350/month unlimited with a six-month commitment (Marseille: Studio Apato €30 / €245 unlimited; Wondercamp €35 / €289; Aix: Capsule €35 / €350; Bordeaux: Lagree Lab €35 / €239; Lyon: Yes Club €40 / €390–430). Cycling and HIIT sit at €20–30 a class, CrossFit in Marseille at €92–95/month for three sessions a week. A member doing two boutique classes a week already spends €250–300/month, for one discipline, in one room, with no spa, no café, no lab.

At €179 we are the price of five drop-in classes. Unlimited classes across every format, plus recovery, plus the lab, plus the place. That is the value proposition in one line, and it is the reason the price filters for the right member rather than scaring them off.

03

Why now

  • Health is the new reason to train: 52% of French exercisers cite health first (2025), Gen Z is 46% of new gym sign-ups (2026), and fitness penetration in France (~10%) is half of Spain/Netherlands.
  • Loneliness is a market: 24% of French adults report frequent loneliness, 28% in cities over 100k.
  • The category exists and works: La Montgolfière filled 1,500 members at €195/month in 14 months; Remedy Place, Othership and Rune prove recovery-led social clubs. Nobody has taken this outside Paris.
The evidence and the counterarguments ↓
04

The plan — five clubs, then the network

  1. 2027

    Club 1 opens (Marseille)

    Demand: paid memberships, retention, referrals

  2. 2028

    Club 2 (2nd city)

    Repeatability beyond the founder's network

  3. 2029

    Club 3

    The playbook works with a hired team

  4. 2030

    Clubs 4–5 + first franchises signed

    The brand travels without our capital

  5. 2031+

    20+ franchises, first hotel partnerships

    Network effects: one membership, many cities

Franchise (from year 4). Two formats: the full club (1,000–1,500 m²) and a compact format (coached classes + recovery, no gym floor). We supply the brand, the playbook, the programming and the AI stack; the franchisee supplies the building and local capital.

Hotels (year 5+). Health-centered hotels with a partner operator: we bring the club, the programming and the AI; the partner brings the property. Members travel between cities and sleep in the network — the Soho House move, without owning real estate.

05

Equity story — two layers

The holding (what investors buy). Owns the brand, the AI coach and the operating playbook; holds the franchise and hotel rights and a controlling stake in each club. Raises a seed now (~€1.5–2M: HQ, AI product, pre-opening of club 1) and a Series A at three clubs. This is where the multiple lives: a network + tech asset, not a chain of gyms.

One SPV per club (how clubs get built). Each club is its own company, ~€2–2.5M all-in, funded 40–50% by local business angels and family offices (the Montgolfière model — different investors per club) and 50–60% by bank debt. Local investors get a local, cash-generating asset; the holding keeps control and the upside of the network.

Exit paths. Strategic (fitness or hospitality groups building premium networks), private equity at network stage, or a hospitality partnership vehicle for the hotel layer.

06

EBITDA story

The financial story follows the club model. Each opening adds its own membership ramp, operating costs and opening investment. The group then carries the central team and the shared AI training coach. AI is included in membership: its costs are budgeted, with no separate coach or licence revenue in this forecast.

ONE MODEL · VISION + BUSINESS CASE

Earlier margins start with the launch.

Open the Business Model
Loading shared assumptions…

40% of capacity at opening; 18 months to target membership.

Current first club · positive trading EBITDAMonth 11
Sustained 20% trading marginMonth 19
Trading margin at target24.2%

Selecting a preset restores its starting assumptions. Both pages use the same saved inputs and shareable model links.

Compare Base and Aggressive · first club
Starting presets with AI costs included. Custom edits are shown in the live model below.
Launch assumption / outcomeBaseAggressive
Members at opening356 · 40% capacity534 · 60% capacity
Months to target189
Sustained positive trading EBITDAMonth 11Month 2
Sustained 20% trading marginMonth 19Month 10
Sustained 30% trading marginNot within 36 monthsNot within 36 months
Trading margin at target24.2%24.2%
Opening member acquisition€118.9k€178.4k
36-month funding including reserve€2.14m€1.90m

The aggressive case changes opening membership and ramp speed. Price, churn, capacity and costs stay identical. Monthly trading EBITDA starts after opening; launch costs remain in funding and in the group’s opening-year EBITDA. No separate AI coach revenue is assumed.

2027–2033 · OWNED CLUBS + CENTRAL TEAM

One club’s economics. Each opening added.

Base scenario · 5 clubs by 2033. Every location follows the current Business Model inputs.

Live shared model
First positive group EBITDA year2031Sustained monthly: Aug 2030
2033 group EBITDA margin19.1%Sustained 30%: Not within 7 years
Group funding needed€9.05mPeak cash need with evolving reserve
Investment paid backNot within 7 yearsCumulative cash before financing & tax
RevenueGroup EBITDAAnnual totals · €m
Base group revenue and EBITDA, 2027 to 2033Revenue and EBITDA for each calendar year, from the shared club model. EBITDA includes launch expenses, central overhead and AI costs. Select a year below for exact figures, or expand the reconciliation table.0.03.36.62027 revenue: €882,3342027 group EBITDA: -€619,75820272028 revenue: €2,150,6902028 group EBITDA: -€371,21220282029 revenue: €3,474,1922029 group EBITDA: -€75,53120292030 revenue: €5,183,7152030 group EBITDA: -€108,89120302031 revenue: €6,341,7782031 group EBITDA: €905,57820312032 revenue: €6,617,5082032 group EBITDA: €1,262,40620322033 revenue: €6,617,5082033 group EBITDA: €1,262,4062033
Inspect year
2027 revenue€882.3k1 club at year-end
Group EBITDA−€619.8k-70.2% margin
AI coach costs included€82.8k€0 separate AI revenue

Club trading EBITDA − pre-opening expenses & founding-member acquisition − central costs = group EBITDA. The AI coach is included in membership. Its build, shared platform and member usage are costs; no retention uplift, licensing, franchise fees or external AI sales are built into these projections.

Annual figures & EBITDA reconciliation
Calculated figures in EUR, rounded for display. Costs are shown as deductions.
YearClubsRevenueSite trading EBITDALaunch expensesCentral recurringAI initial buildGroup EBITDAMarginCash flowCumulative cash
20271€882,334-€104,854-€198,904-€276,000-€40,000-€619,758-70.2%-€1,929,770-€1,929,770
20282€2,150,690€163,692-€198,904-€336,000-€0-€371,212-17.3%-€1,693,224-€3,622,994
20293€3,474,192€519,373-€198,904-€396,000-€0-€75,531-2.2%-€1,409,543-€5,032,538
20305€5,183,715€774,917-€397,808-€486,000-€0-€108,891-2.1%-€2,758,916-€7,791,454
20315€6,341,778€1,421,578-€0-€516,000-€0€905,57814.3%€845,578-€6,945,875
20325€6,617,508€1,778,406-€0-€516,000-€0€1,262,40619.1%€1,202,406-€5,743,470
20335€6,617,508€1,778,406-€0-€516,000-€0€1,262,40619.1%€1,202,406-€4,541,064

Central recurring costs include the shared AI platform once. Usage costs sit with each club. Pre-opening costs and founding-member acquisition are expensed in each opening year; the AI initial build is expensed once in year one. Cash flow also pays fit-out, equipment, contingency, deposits and replacement investment. Launch expenses are paid once. Group cash excludes debt, equity, interest and tax. The first-club financing inputs stay in the Simple and Full model tabs.

Peak funding requirement: €9.05m in Jul 2030, including a €1.12m reserve at that point. A positive EBITDA year can still require financing for subsequent openings.

Edit opening calendar & central costs

These are editable planning allowances. January is month 1. Each location repeats the same floor area, price, costs and ramp; set an opening month to 0 to remove that location.

year

Month 1 is January of this year. Calendar dates are a scenario, not a committed opening schedule.

month · 0 = no opening
Jan 2028

Each owned club repeats the selected single-club assumptions and membership ramp. Month 1 is the first January. Zero removes this club; club labels do not impose an opening order.

month · 0 = no opening
Jan 2029

Each owned club repeats the selected single-club assumptions and membership ramp. Month 1 is the first January. Zero removes this club; club labels do not impose an opening order.

month · 0 = no opening
Jan 2030

Each owned club repeats the selected single-club assumptions and membership ramp. Month 1 is the first January. Zero removes this club; club labels do not impose an opening order.

month · 0 = no opening
Jul 2030

Each owned club repeats the selected single-club assumptions and membership ramp. Month 1 is the first January. Zero removes this club; club labels do not impose an opening order.

€ / month

€15k is an illustrative editable allowance, not a staffing benchmark. Excludes site teams and the separately modelled shared AI platform.

€ / club / month

€5k per open club is an illustrative editable expansion-support allowance, additional to the central base. No AI or franchise fees are earned internally.

AI coach allowance: €40,000 once to build, €3,000 per month for the shared platform, plus €2.00 per active member at 60% adoption. Edit these in Full model → Costs. They are planning inputs, not supplier quotes.

Original draft economics · superseded by the live model

One club at maturity (indicative, from v1 model + benchmark): 800–900 members × ~€138 net/month ≈ €1.5M membership + 20–25% ancillary (coaching, recovery à la carte, tests, F&B, events) ≈ €1.8–2.0M revenue, 30–35% site EBITDA (~€0.6M). Year 1 is negative; monthly EBITDA turns positive around month 8; payback ~4 years.

The group (illustrative, 5 owned clubs then network):

Metric202720282029203020312033
Owned clubs open123555
Franchises–––3820+
Group revenue~€0.9M~€2.5M~€4.5M~€7M~€10M~€14M
Group EBITDA~–€0.3M~€0.2M~€0.8M~€1.5M~€3M~€5M+
Margin––~18%~22%~30%~35%

Three levers drive the curve: (1) site EBITDA at 30–35% once a club is full; (2) HQ costs (€1M/year) diluted over more sites; (3) fee income at 70–80% margin — franchise entry fees (€50–80k), royalties (6% + 2% marketing) and the AI/tech licence (€2–3k/month per site, incl. hotels). By 2031 fees are ~10% of revenue and ~25% of EBITDA; that is what moves the multiple.

07

The AI edge

The AI training coach is part of the club experience from launch. Included in membership, it connects training, recovery and progress between visits.

  • For members: personalised guidance and a continuous view of their progress.
  • For the club: a retention and conversion hypothesis to test through adoption, attendance and renewals. Neither scenario automatically lowers churn or removes human coaches.
  • For the network: shared programming and member profiles across future locations. The platform is budgeted once centrally, with usage costs for each club.

The business case includes development, ongoing product support and active-member usage. Separate AI subscriptions and partner licence revenue are zero in the forecast. Licensing remains a longer-term option.

Explore the AI budget in the shared model ↑

The starting point is Remi’s personal coaching project. Explore the Hybrid Coach prototype ↗ Sign-in required.

Original AI draft · long-term options

Remi built the coach for himself; it becomes the product's nervous system. Three roles:

  • For members: included. Programs training and recovery from real data (VO2max, blood markers, sleep). Perceived value €50–120/month, marginal cost near zero → retention and price justification.
  • For franchisees and hotels: licensed. The AI plus the programming library is the reason to franchise us rather than open a gym.
  • For the network: one member profile across cities and hotels. The data layer is the moat a copycat club can't buy.
08

The star

An athlete or public figure at the capital, not on a poster: equity-for-presence, co-designs programming, hosts a few events a year, opens their network. Three profiles to test, ideally rooted in Marseille:

  1. Marseille champion — a swimmer from the Cercle des Nageurs (Florent Manaudou or Camille Lacourt type): local, aspirational, health-not-nightlife.
  2. Hybrid / endurance figure — a French Hyrox elite, trail or triathlon athlete with a strong community and content habit; matches the training pillar and Remi's own network.
  3. Longevity voice — a doctor, sports scientist or performance coach with a media presence; credibilises the recovery and testing pillar.

The choice is a brand decision: profile 1 sells the city, profile 2 sells the training, profile 3 sells the health.

09

What we ask, and what we prove next

Seed for the holding, one SPV for Marseille, and three weeks of validation (site, price, presales) before anyone writes a cheque. Everything above is a hypothesis until a member pays.

10

What the story is still missing

  1. Demand evidence outside Paris. Zero presales, zero waitlist, zero price test in Marseille. The three-week validation protocol is the only answer to this, and it should be in the deck before the trends are.
  2. The operator. La Montgolfière was a finance founder plus a coach who had run gyms for seven years. We are a growth/AI founder. Who runs the floor, hires 40 coaches, manages a restaurant and a spa? The team slide is currently the weakest slide.
  3. The building. In this category the building is the product (industrial, high, light). We have no site, no rent quote, no landlord. Capex is a guess until we do.
  4. The pace contradiction. Our benchmark opened one club every seven years; our plan says five clubs in four years plus franchises. A VC will read the plan as either naïve or as requiring a fundamentally different operating model — we must show which, and what it costs (HQ team, playbook, capital per club).
  5. Franchising an unproven format. Nobody in France has franchised a 1,500 m² social club; the compact format has no economics yet. Franchise revenue in the EBITDA story is the least defensible line.
  6. The AI moat is a feature until proven otherwise. Every device and app is shipping an AI coach. Our defensible asset is not the model, it is the proprietary in-club data (tests, attendance, recovery) and the closed loop with a coach. Say that. Also check the regulatory side: blood-test-driven advice in France sits close to medical practice; the partnership with Lucis needs to define who prescribes and who advises.
  7. Exit and investor fit. Fitness operators trade at mid-single-digit to ~10× EBITDA; VC returns need the network-and-fees layer to be real. Until it is, this is a business-angel / family-office / hospitality-investor story (exactly how La Montgolfière and Bathhouse's early rounds were done), not a VC story. Choosing the right investor is part of the narrative.
  8. Model consistency. The public dossier says €179 and 1,335 m²; the internal model says €149 and 800 m². Any investor who reads both will stop there.
  9. Seasonality and churn. Marseille empties in August and fills with tourists; no French premium club has published churn. The 3%/month assumption is borrowed from generic gym data; premium capped clubs should do better, but we have no proof.
  10. The backlash trend. The Global Wellness Summit's 2026 list includes "over-optimisation backlash". A club that leads with biomarkers and VO2max can read as clinical; leading with the place, the outdoors and the people, with the lab as a quiet layer, is safer.

Bottom line for the narrative: keep the four trends, cut each to three numbers, and put the counter-argument in our own words before the investor does. The credibility comes from the validation protocol and the team, not from the trends.

Reference material

The original documents.

Both drafts are preserved in full. The current financial charts come from the shared Business Model calculator; superseded economics and AI wording remain available above. The source claims and bibliography have not been independently re-verified.

01 / Vision note8 Sept 2026 · Original Markdown ↗02 / The four trends we ride8 Sept 2026 · Original Markdown ↗
Notes on the club list

Three names from the original list could not be verified as Paris clubs: Blold, The Eight (theeightclub.com is a members' club with no city, fitness content or prices) and Digg — please check spellings or share links. Haus One and Impact open in October, not September. Impact's "Paris 19" address is not published.

Source bibliography

Paris clubs: runeclub.fr; Numéro (30 Jul 2026); haus-one.com; impact-paris.com; hyriawellnesshouse.com; nxtlvlclub.com; crea-home.fr; Time Out Paris (31 Oct 2025, 22 Jul 2026); cult.news (8 Jun 2026); Journal du Luxe (28 Jul 2026); Luxus+ (3 Sep 2026); sohohouse.com House Notes 006. US/UK: Athletech News (Bathhouse $35M, 12 May 2026; Othership, 3 Jul 2025; Sweat and Tonic, Jul 2026); Fortune "social wellness clubs"; remedyplace.com; Fitt Insider (May 2022); Life Time FY2025 preliminary results (22 Jan 2026); Health Club Management (Third Space Whiteley; 1Rebel); luxe.digital (Equinox 2026 pricing); McKinsey Future of Wellness 2025; Global Wellness Summit trends 2025 and 2026. Fitness market: EuropeActive/Deloitte EHFMR 2026 via SGI Europe; HFA 2026 US report; LeisureDB UK 2025; Union Sport & Cycle / Xerfi via MagicFit; Basic-Fit FY2025; Filière Sport (Fitness Park, 11 May 2026); INJEP/CRÉDOC Baromètre des pratiques sportives 2025; ABC Fitness Wellness Watch (Oct 2025); The Gym Group Gen Z Fitness Pulse 2025; GWI Wellness Economy Monitor 2025; WHOOP Series G (31 Mar 2026); Oura (Sep/Oct 2025); Sacra (Function Health); lucis.life (26 May 2026). Running/outdoor: Strava Year in Sport 2024 and 2025; Observatoire du Running 2025 (Union Sport & Cycle / Running Heroes); athle.fr (FFA licences 2025); Baromètre Finisher FFA 2024 and 2025 (u-Trail, Filière Sport 25 Aug 2026); Jogging International (Semi 2026); marathons.com (Marathon de Paris 2026); u-Trail (Marseille-Cassis 2025); Maritima (Défi de Monte-Cristo 2025); endurance.biz (Hyrox 2026/27); zonehybrid.fit and roxzone.fr (Hyrox France/Marseille); utmb.world (2025 season, UTMB×Strava); Paris Wellness Review, Run Club Collective (Marseille); Deckers FY2026 (Hoka); Brand Futures (Bandit). Boutique pricing (Sept 2026 rate cards): studio-apato.com, wondercamp.fr, setmarseille.com, capsulepilatesclub.com, lagreelab.fr, soda-studio.fr, yesclubstudio.com, beyond-cycling.studio, o2trainingclub.fr, reformer-factory.com, crossfit-symbiote.fr, wellness-sportclub.fr, cnmarseille.com (2025 grid), silostudio.fr, episod.com, studio-rituel.paris; Mariana Tek Boutique Fitness Trends 2026. Loneliness: Fondation de France, Étude Solitudes 2025 and 2026; OECD, Social Connections and Loneliness in OECD Countries (Oct 2025); WHO Commission on Social Connection (30 Jun 2025); US Surgeon General advisory (May 2023); gov.uk Community & Engagement Survey 2025/26; Hillsdon/TRP retention study via Health Club Management; Les Mills Gen Z report (Apr 2024); PLOS Global Public Health (parkrun, 2024).